The inflation rate in January was the lowest in the last five years, reaching 2.2%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). This trend is expected to continue in February, with projections suggesting inflation close to 2%. According to Aldo Abram, president of Libertad y Progreso, it is possible that the inflation index in February will remain below 2% for the entire year.
Experts such as Fausto Spotorno have analyzed the situation in detail. Spotorno calculated an inflation rate of 1.5% in the first week of February, noting that this increase accounts for most of the accumulated inflation. In the following periods of the month, the price increase tends to be lower, as most adjustments occur at the beginning of the month.
Regarding inflation by categories in January 2025, the category with the highest increase was Restaurants and hotels at 5.3%, followed by Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels at 4%. On the other hand, Transportation had a variation of 1.2%, Education of 0.5%, and Clothing and footwear recorded a decrease of 0.7%.
INDEC indicated that in some regions such as NEA, NOA, Pampeana, and Patagonia, food and non-alcoholic beverages had the highest impact on January's inflation. In Cuyo and Greater Buenos Aires, however, the greatest impact was in Restaurants and hotels.
Regarding food, significant price increases were observed in products such as lemon, round tomato, and fresh hake fillet, while others like potato, pumpkin, and lettuce recorded price decreases. María Castiglioni, director of C&T Economic Advisors, forecasted that in February, inflation is expected to be 1.9%, a figure not seen since July 2020 in INDEC records.
Expectations are optimistic about keeping inflation below 2%, despite some specific increases in certain products. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February will be published by INDEC in mid-March, although private consultants are already anticipating figures around 2%.
